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“There has been mixed evidence about whether it’s more severe or not,” Dr. The studies evaluating Delta’s severity have been frustratingly inconsistent. He thinks it’s equally likely that Delta is slightly more severe or slightly less severe. Given this bias, he advises assuming it is not more severe absent good evidence. David Dowdy of Johns Hopkins pointed out that most people naturally assume Delta is more severe - because it is new, scary and more contagious. I can’t think of any public health decision that hinges on whether it’s the same or 20 percent worse.”ĭr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, said: “I treat as if it might be a little more severe, but I don’t know that it matters that much. Paul Sax of Brigham and Women’s Hospital said.ĭr. “It really is in the ‘I don’t know stage,’” Dr. “The risks to vaccinated people haven’t really changed.” “On a per-infection basis, I don’t think it’s changed,” Jennifer Nuzzo, the lead epidemiologist for the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Testing Insights Initiative, said. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “Any difference is a small difference,” Dr. Still, I have noticed the broad outlines of a consensus in recent interviews: Expert opinionīecause the evidence is still emerging and sometimes inconsistent, experts do not read it precisely the same way. These tentative conclusions come from three different sources: expert opinion research studies and overall data on cases, hospitalizations and deaths. That’s a more heartening picture than many people assume. While Delta is certainly more contagious - and its contagiousness does call for some new precautions, like more frequent mask wearing - its severity does not appear to be fundamentally different. But the evidence so far suggests that Delta is similarly severe to earlier versions of the virus, probably with only modest differences in one direction or the other. We still can’t be sure, and future data could change the picture. On the other hand, if Delta were substantially more severe, it could call for a much more cautious approach to everyday life. If Delta weren’t any more severe, it would mean that this encouraging situation had not changed. For the vast majority of people, the virus resembled a typical flu, rarely causing serious illness.
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In both groups, earlier versions of Covid were usually manageable. The question is especially relevant to children and to vaccinated adults. It remains perhaps the most important unanswered question about the Delta variant: Does it cause more severe illness than earlier versions of the Covid virus - or equally severe symptoms in the average infected person (while clearly being more contagious)?